![]() ![]() In fact, it is difficult to believe that he could be doing so well among young voters and in the West without significant support from those two populations. But I don’t know of any compelling evidence that Bernie does badly among Asian Americans and Latinos. There is compelling evidence to suggest that Bernie does poorly among black voters, especially in the East and South where populations of black voters are highest. (On a side note, I really hate the constant confusion of African Americans with “minorities” in general. You do have to consider that Bernie’s socialism may cause more conservatives to turn out specifically in order to vote against him. As Andrew notes, Hillary’s wins suggest that she would be better at inspiring black turnout, and winning in the South may mean that she both has broader appeal, and is less likely to inspire Republican turnout. To be honest, I have not seen any compelling evidence that it matters. ![]() Which is self-perpetuating, because if Hillary is considered to be the candidate favored by moderates, conservative Democrats, and black people, that’s likely to influence moderates, conservative Democrats, and black people to be more inclined to vote for her. ![]() So really, from the “Who won what?” media spin perspective, Bernie only did moderately better than expected, while losing the South pretty badly for actual delegates. He didn’t even seem to be trying in the past couple of weeks, and he’s losing by way more in those states than he won in any state except Vermont. In terms of delegates won, Bernie was always going to lose today, but he did so badly in the South that it may be unrecoverable. If he won 5 states to Hillary’s 6, then the media could spin it as neck-and-neck, but that’s less likely to happen now, which will hurt his ability to inspire turnout in the future… But he needed Massachusetts badly enough that losing that might cancel it out. (The polls were not very illuminating, but given the types of people who attend the caucuses, Bernie was almost the perfect candidate to capture Coloradan suburbia, including most of the Denver-area population.) Oklahoma was good for him. Vermont was a given, and from my experience in Colorado politics, that was a given as well. He’s doing better than I expected, but not nearly good enough to be as competitive as he seemed coming out of NH. ![]()
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